Energy Transition Report 2018

Electric vehicles Meanwhile, in the last ten years electric-powered vehicles have moved from a marginal component of the automobile market into the mainstream. There are many types of transport vehicles where this technology is already a reality, whether in hybrid form or purely electrical propulsion, ranging frommotorcycles to cars and light delivery vehicles. The main constraints to the adoption of electric technology for vehicles come from their limited range and the availability of charging infrastructure. But both these aspects of the technology are improving quickly and are likely to mean that the use of electric vehicles will extend beyond users who have enough space in the home for charging equipment. The general move towards short-term hiring and leasing of vehicles may also facilitate the uptake of this technology. Furthermore, the government has already set an objective that by 2040 there will no longer be any vehicles sold with solely petrol or diesel engines. One possible outcome is that electric vehicles largely replace internal combustion engines for all personal and light commercial transport and that the electricity used to power them is derived from renewable sources. This would correspond to a further reduction in UK oil and gas demand of up to 30 mtoe (assuming full electrification). Other energy uses There are a number of sources of demand where the Energy Transition is unlikely to have a significant impact in the short to medium term. These difficult-to-decarbonise sectors include heavy freight transport by road, maritime transport, aviation and most domestic and industrial heat applications. For many industrial processes, high energy density is required to serve particular needs where acceleration of a heavy load or achieving high temperatures rapidly is required. Electricity-based technologies are currently not available to serve requirements of this nature and at present there is little evidence of these emerging in the short to medium term at the required scale. For domestic heating, particularly for the UKwhere 80%of households are heated by gas, the cost and infrastructure implications of a wide-scale transformation to electricity-based technologies may be difficult to overcome in the short to medium term. Estimates suggest that transferring domestic properties to electric heating would require 20,000 properties to be changed over per week between 2025 to 2050. It is unclear how such a transition would be organised or whether such a change would be acceptable to consumers. 7 A full-scale transfer to electrical heating would require a more significant upgrade to distribution and transmission networks in addition to any requirements for electric vehicles. In addition, the nature of heat demand also includes a much higher degree of daily and seasonal variation compared to current electricity use and demand from vehicles that would further stretch investment and storage requirements if electricity generation is expected to transfer almost entirely away from fossil fuels.

7 National Grid – Future of Gas 2017

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