Energy Transition Report 2018

TR & NSITION ENERGY

ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2018

Global demand forecasts to 2050 In the global context, trends such as population and development growth are likely to mean oil and gas demand continuing at similar levels to today, at least until 2030. Extending the availability of reliable and affordable energy and improving air quality are part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals alongside its Climate Change objectives. There is still much to be achieved in this area particularly for regions where the use of unsustainable biomass remains widespread. Likewise, there are significant advances in both carbon emissions and air quality when replacing older coal-fired generation with that of natural gas.

These projections mean that in most forecasts, oil demand continues to increase until the 2030s at global level. Meanwhile gas demand is expected to show modest growth for the forseeable future.

Global oil demand forecasts 11

Actual

IEA (New policy)

120

OPEC (Reference Case)

EIA (Reference Case)

110

IEA (Current Policy)

IEA (Sustainable Policy)

BP (Evolving Transition)

BP (Faster Transition Scenario)

100

90

80

70

60 Demand (mbd)

50

40

30

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

The above forecasts for oil demand give a wide range of outcomes for the year 2040 with OPEC, at the higher end, envisaging continued demand growth, approaching 120mbd by 2040.Meanwhile theDNVGL forecast (not graphed) and the IEA SD scenario both have oil demand peaking in the 2020s and a steady fall thereafter reaching 65–80mbd by 2040.

11 BP Energy Outlook 2017 IEA World Energy Outlook 2017 OPEC Long-Term Oil Forecast 2017 EIA International Energy Outlook 2017

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