Energy Transition Outlook 2021

ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2021

Figure 2: Installations CO 2 Emissions (Reported and Forecast)

OGUK CO 2 installations short-term forecast (2021-25) Industry’s direct greenhouse gas emissions has a strong correlation to UK oil and gas production. OGUK analysis have projected CO 2 emissions from installations out to 2025, providing an indication of likely progress against the NSTD targets. CO 2 emissions from installations are around 70 per cent of the total covered by the industry target, which also includes terminals and methane emissions. Based on a projection including both a high level of investment in new production and development, combined with continued intervention by operators to control emissions, it is concluded that industry has the potential to exceed near-term emissions reduction targets whilst avoiding steep declines in output, provided investment programmes recover. OGUK’s short-term forecasts for emissions apply a full investment production outlook against installation emissions and extrapolates them across the basin. This assumes that even when further development proposals which are currently under consideration are included, industry can meet its emissions reduction target. This is illustrated in Figure 2 which sets out: • a high case, based on a reforecast of OGUK’s previous BAU scenario • a low case, which assumes more rapid progress by operators in addressing emissions “reduced flaring and venting, streamlining operations and investing in targeted plant modifications, while maintaining and improving on an 80 per cent production efficiency target means the UKCS is emitting fewer GHG emissions per barrel of oil and gas produced”

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Reported Emissions

Mid Range 2.0 BAU Reforecast

Total Emissions BAU (Original Forecast)

Operator Intervention

North Sea Transition Deal

Source: OGUK

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