Energy Transition Outlook 2021

ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2021

IEA – Net Zero Scenario

DNV – Current Policy Forecast

Shell 1.5 Sky Scenario

Oil Demand

Demand dropped below 88 mb/d in 2020. Annual average decline of more than 4 % from 2020-2050. The electrification of transport is the primary reason for oil demand reductions.

2019 demand 88mb/d, 2025 could see similar levels showing initial recovery. New oil developments will continue to 2050. Growing population/economy alongside demand for transportation explains the growth in demand. In 2050 around a 50:50 spilt of natural gas demand between final usage and being used in the production of other final uses (electricity, hydrogen etc.) Europe OECD Pacific are decarbonizing faster than others, demand will largely reduce to 2050.

Demand to stay strong throughout 2020s peaking in 2025. Investment in producing oil alongside new fields is necessary. Current production will not meet long-term demand. Demand to stay strong throughout 2030s peaking in 2034. Readily available in power generation, investment increases.

Gas Demand

Demand dropped to 3900 bcm in 2020. Annual average decline of more than 5% from 2020 to 2050. Large level of hydrogen and biomethane results in gas demand to decline less severely.

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