Energy Transition Outlook 2021
ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2021
Figure 11: Emissions from UKCS oil and gas end use in 2018, Million Tonnes CO 2
combustion of UK-produced oil and gas. Figure 12 below includes an assessment of the likely position by the mid-2040s in this respect. In considering this it should be noted that this is the likely outcome for UKCS only and not necessarily reflective of the entire UK consumption of oil and gas which will also include imports.
3%
1% 8%
Figure 12: CCUS potential by mid-2040
2%
80
High
End use emissions 2018 217 MtCO 2
70
Regular Heavy Oil 20-23 Gas Extra Heavy Oil NGL Condensate Light
45%
60
50
CCUScapacity (lowandhigh) Emissionscombustion Emissions re ningandprocessing Directemissions
35%
40
Low
30
20
6%
Source: Rystad Energy
10
0
Directplusprocessing / re ningand combustion
CCUScapacity
Directplus re ning /processing
By the mid-2030s, the expected roll out of carbon storage facilities would likely offset both direct emissions and those from processing and refining which would be in the range of 20-30 million tonnes. However, emissions from combustion of the oil and gas being produced would remain significantly higher. By the mid-2040s however, the production and use of oil and gas in the economy will have fallen while carbon storage capacity increases. With a greater roll out of carbon storage capacity, this should more than offset the emissions, including those from the
Investments in carbon capture and hydrogen technologies therefore represent an important opportunity for the oil and gas sector to contribute to the objective of net zero, but continued progress is dependent on these projects being attractive to investors. These technologies will not have the same characteristics as oil and gas assets in terms of balance sheet impact, risk profile and return on capital.
23
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