Energy Transition Outlook 2019

TR & NSITION ENERGY

Energy Transition Outlook 2019

Pathway 1: Progressing UK Oil and Gas Production on a Path to Net-Zero

Our first pathway recognises the need for oil and gas within our energy mix during the coming decades. The UK oil and gas industry has an important role as part of the solution to a net-zero economy, helping to reduce the carbon emissions from oil and gas production and providing some of the technologies to reduce the carbon footprint from the use of oil and gas. But as the economy transforms, there will remain continued domestic demand for hydrocarbons.

The rate at which fuel switching and energy efficiency measures reduce UK oil and gas demand will be parallel to the rate at which UKCS production will decline due to the maturity of the basin and taking into account additional developments of remaining reserves. As set out in Roadmap 2035, part of the vision for the sector is for indigenous oil and gas production to fulfil as much domestic demand as possible, reducing the need for international

imports, maintaining energy sovereignty, and helping keep affordable energy prices. Therefore, strategies looking to maximise economic recovery from the UKCS remain part of the solution to transitioning to a net-zero economy. The failure to fully develop the UKCS means the UK will risk emissions from oil and gas consumption simply being offshored to achieve UK targets.

UK Oil and Gas Demand versus UKCS Production to 2050

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UK Oil and Gas Demand

Forecast UKCS Produc�on

250

)eotM(dnameDdnanoitcudorPsaGdnaliO Roadmap 2035 Produc�on (Interpolated to 2050)

200

150

100

CCC Net Zero UK oil and gas demand

50

CCC Net Zero UK oil and gas produc�on

0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: BEIS, CCC, OGUK

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