Energy Transition Outlook 2019

Power sector and energy efficiency have driven reductions to date UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have fallen by over 43% since 1990 as government climate policies have increased the cost of emissions-intensive activities, whilst subsidising low- carbon energy generation. 1 main sources: lower carbon electricity supply, including coal-to-gas switching, driven by carbon prices and support for renewable sources; increased energy efficiency and improved domestic appliances supported by the setting minimum standards; and a more general economy- wide move away from energy- intensive manufacturing to the lower-intensity service sector. The latter has meant reductions from UK manufacturing have to some extent been offset by increased emissions elsewhere in the world. Emissions reductions have been achieved by three

This still means that the UK has met its commitments under the current climate agreements since emission accounting is carried out on a territorial basis. However, some estimates suggest that, measured on a consumption basis including the emissions embedded in imported products, UK GHG emissions fell by only 3% between 1997 and 2016 2 (or 21% below peak in 2007). Five significant technology trends driving emission reduction to 2019 Phase out of coal for electricity generation – replaced mainly by renewable capacity and some gas 1

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Reductions in gas demand for heating as a result of improved housing stock, insulation and mandated condensing boilers Lower electricity demand resulting from roll out of LED lighting and more efficient appliances Falling electricity generation costs from wind towards broadly the same level as gas-fired power generation Reduction in share of industrial production in the UK with corresponding growth in imported manufacturing products

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The UK tracks the progress of its emission reductions via successive carbon budgets whereby the CCC sets out the required targets many years in advance, based on the goals set out in the Climate Change Act. The first (2008–12) and second (2013–17) carbon budgets were met and the UK is on track to achieve the third (2018–22) budget. However, on the current trajectory, it will not meet the fourth carbon budget (2023–27) by some margin. The fifth and sixth carbon budgets for the period 2027–37 are likely to be significantly toughened as a result of the new net-zero target.

1 2018 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Provisional Figures (BEIS) 2 UK’s carbon footprint 1997–2016 (DEFRA)

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