Economic Report 2023 - Offshore Energies UK (OEUK)

Figure 12 UK oil and gas production and demand

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Historic oil and gas demand & CCC balanced pathway future scenario Historic oil and gas production & NSTA production forecast

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150

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of oil equivalent)

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UK oil and gas production & consumption (million tonnes

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: NSTA, CCC, OEUK

The rate of decline might be slowed so that around half the remaining oil and gas needs could be met with equivalent domestic production. However, this will only be realised if efforts to attract investment to new and existing fields are successful. This requires a more competitive, stable and predictable tax regime, as well as support for continued licensing and exploration. Otherwise, net oil and gas imports will increase significantly, even

though a lot of UK crude is refined initially overseas. And without new investment it is possible that the industry will be spending more on decommissioning than it invests in production by 2025. Even in a high investment case, decommissioning spend is likely to overtake production investment by the end of the decade, during which period it is likely that decommissioning will average around £2bn/yr.

ECONOMI C REPORT 2023

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