Economic Report 2021 - OGUK

UK EU -14% -11%

Gas Production

1Q 2021

UK EU +19% +7.6%

Gas Consumption

1Q 2021

costs, which Ofgem estimates could increase by £135 per household. Similarly, the UK (and others) are recording some of the highest petrol and diesel prices since 2013. These are largely linked to rising oil prices as well as constraints in domestic and continental production along with refinery output pressures being priced in. Alongside increased carbon prices, these various factors are all affecting the wholesale price of oil. As fuel duty and VAT have remained stable, the pressures within the wholesale market are expected to be borne in terms of cost to the end-user. OGUK anticipates that fuel costs are likely to continue to rise as policy moves towards decarbonising the transport sector and incentivising the use of low-carbon vehicles.

Figure 7: UK Fuel Price Breakdown

Fuel Duty

VAT

Wholesale Price

15