Economic Report 2019

Pathway 1 — Progressing UK Oil and Gas Production on the Path to Net-Zero Emissions The drive to maximise economic recovery from the UKCS is compatible with the ambition to achieve net-zero emissions, given that industry is acting to reduce its carbon footprint. As outlined in section 3.1, the UK consumed just over 150 mtoe of oil and gas last year, around 75 per cent of total domestic primary energy use. Around 90 mtoe (59 per cent) of this was produced from the UKCS and the remainder is imported from other countries. Alternative energy sources, mostly for electricity, will continue to grow quickly to displace some of these requirements but there remain some areas, such as heavy goods transport, aviation and industrial use, where there are not yet suitable substitutes for fossil fuels. The CCC estimates that in 2050 UK oil and gas demand will still be around 65 mtoe, 30 per cent of which will be met by production from the UK, according to baseline forecasts. Continued investment to find, develop and produce new resources will be crucial to the effective management of production in line with this, and the UKCS must remain competitive if this to be achieved.

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Figure 26: UK Oil and Gas Production and Demand Scenarios 36

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UK Oil and Gas Demand

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Forecast UKCS Production

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Vision 2035 Production (Interpolated to 2050)

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CCC Net Zero UK oil and gas demand

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CCC Net Zero UK oil and gas production

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Source: BEIS, CCC, OGUK

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36 Values post-2035 have been interpolated. Oil and gas demand post-2035 is not expected to exactly follow the shown trajectory, the rate shown is simply for explanatory purpose. New policies will likely smoothen the curve from its current position to the end goal.

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