Economic Report 2018

ECONOMIC REPORT 2018

3.6 Production Performance Production in the basin increased by 16 per cent between 2014-17, driven by improved production efficiency 7 and new developments coming on stream. If current trends continue, by the end of this year production could be more than 20 per cent higher than it was just five years ago. The recent strong production performance of the UKCS has continued into 2018. Over the first six months of the year output has been in line with that of the first half of 2017 and 2016 at 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). Continued strong performance in the second half of 2018, along with the additions of further volumes from new developments coming on stream, such as Clair Ridge, could increase production by around 4 per cent on total 2017 production. 8 Oil & Gas UK’s 2018 production forecast of 620-640 million boe, issued in the Business Outlook 2018 , is therefore still seen as good guidance.

Figure 11: UKCS Production Profile by Month

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

Monthly Production

12-Point Moving Average

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Monthly Production (Million boe)

20

Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul

Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Nov

Nov

Nov

Nov

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar 2018

May

May

May

May

May

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: OGA, JODI

Production efficiency has now seen five years of continued improvement, to 74 per cent in 2017 – the highest level in a decade. The 1 per cent improvement in 2017 alone accounted for an additional 12 million boe. 9 Although the recent improvements are welcome, industry has to remain focused on increasing average production efficiency to 80 per cent or better.

7 Production efficiency is the total annual production divided by the maximum production potential of an asset. 8 Production in the second half of 2017 was negatively impacted by the unplanned outage of the Forties Pipeline System. 9 www.ogauthority.co.uk/media/4967/ukcs-production-efficiency-2018.pdf

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