Economic Report 2018

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The Global Energy System (2020-2040) Increasingly, the development and deployment of new technologies means that energy sources have the ability to meet one, two or even all three elements of the ‘energy trilemma’ criteria (low cost, secure, and low carbon). The shift towards such technologies will undoubtedly form what has become widely known as the ‘Energy Transition’, whereby carbon-intensive sources of energy are either replaced with low-carbon alternatives, or retro-fitted with new technology to better meet these criteria. Oil and gas will continue to form the largest component of the world’s energy system for at least the medium term. Various estimates and scenarios have been developed which project when peak oil demand will be reached, and range between the mid-2020s and dates post-2040, after which a gradual decline is expected. Meanwhile the use of gas continues to grow moderately over most long-term forecasts. Oil and gas will therefore form a key pillar of the transition over this period and will have opportunities to be part of the final, future energy mix.

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The World in 2040

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Global Population Increase + 20%

Total Economic Growth + 100%

Growth in Primary Energy Demand + 30%

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Figure 7: Global Energy Demand Forecast (IEA New Policies Scenario)

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Coal

Oil

Gas Bioenergy Nuclear Hydro Other Renewables

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

sennoT noilliM( ecruoS yb dnameD ygrenE

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)tnelaviuqE liO fo

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0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

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2000

2016

2025

2030

2035

2040

Source: IEA

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