Decommissioning Insight 2019

DECOMMISSIONING INSIGHT 2019

Figure 13: Well Decommissioning Activity – Insight Forecasts versus Actuals 2014, to 2018

160

140

Average Forecasts

Actuals

120

100

80

60

Number of Wells

40

20

0

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: OGUK, OGA Experience has shown that even near-term forecasts can turn out to be significantly different from actual activity or spend, despite the use of data obtained directly from operators. This emphasises the challenges in forecasting decommissioning activity, when even in the near-term, external or operational factors can change an asset owner’s plans at short notice. 5.3 The Future — Challenges and Opportunities For ten years OGUK’s Decommissioning Insight has been the only short-to-medium term forecast for decommissioning activity in the North Sea. Unlike development planning in oil and gas, decommissioning activity is not schedule-driven and hence predictions may not always match reality. This is illustrated clearly if year-to-year comparisons are made between Insight reports. This causes much frustration, in particular for the supply chain, where businesses keen to invest are looking for clarity on scope to allow them to justify expenditure in people and equipment. Indeed, without that clarity, the UK decommissioning sector’s ability to grow will be hampered. This situation is recognised by the industry and regulators alike and the issue is being addressed as part of the drive towards making the UK the ‘global hub for decommissioning’, as described in the UK Government’s Call for Evidence. 13 Decommissioning Insight will remain the principal forecast of decommissioning activity for members of OGUK and the wider decommissioning community. It is now fully aligned with the OGA’s Asset Stewardship Survey process and represents the most granular picture of activity across the decommissioning Work Breakdown Structure. 14

13 oilandgasuk.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/OGUK-Decommissioning-Call-for-Evidence-Response.pdf 14 oilandgasuk.co.uk/product/decommissioning-work-breakdown-structure-guidelines/

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