Business Outlook 2022

Figure 14: Offshore Energy Investment Outlook Source: Rystad Cube Dashboard

Under construction Operational In application Concept Approved

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

Capacity by start-up year (MW)

1,000

0

Source: Rystad Cube Dashboard

Although not all the awarded capacity will be in place and producing before the end of the decade, the likely project pipeline indicates that the target of 40 GW by 2030 is achievable. Assuming a load factor of 57% (based on BEIS projections) 6 , this level of capacity could be enough to meet more than 60% of anticipated electricity needs and 13% of UK expected total energy consumption in 2030 . Total capital investment could be in excess of £60bn through to 2030, with most of this directed towards fixed installations.

Investment in floating wind projects is likely to attract less than 5% of this. Floating projects tend to have additional commercial and technical complexities and are therefore still slightly less advanced. But their share of the offshore wind investments is likely to go up sharply after 2030, with many floating wind projects in concept phase and 60% of the ScotWind capacity being floating projects. In total, the UK is expected to have around 9 floating offshore wind projects coming online up to and including 2030. This is significant progress towards

6 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/911817/ electricity-generation-cost-report-2020.pdf

30

BUSINESS OUTLOOK 2022