Business Outlook 2022

Figure 10: Oil and Gas Reserves by Year of Approval Source: NSTA, Offshore Energies UK

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

Total Approved New Reserves (boe)

200

0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E

Source: OGA, OGUK

approvals seen in 2018. It is expected that 10 fields will start up in 2022 and early 2023 which, combined with the fields that started producing in late 2021, will bring around 450mn boe of new reserves (roughly 50:50 split between oil and gas) and peak production rates of around 250,000 boe/d. This would be enough to offset the declining production from existing assets, keeping total production from the basin relatively stable throughout 2022-23. The opportunity to ramp up production in the short term, over and above existing plans, is relatively limited. However there are some levers which could in theory

result in up to a 5% boost to output over the next 1-2 years. The biggest near-term gain will come from continual and reliable output, achieved by increasing production efficiency through focus on reliability and minimising outages. Consideration should also be paid to the impact of commodity prices and the impact they could have on companies’ plans. This could mean accelerating smaller work scopes and brownfield infill drilling to help boost output and extending the productive life of mature assets, however these projects take time to plan and gain approvals for and therefore it can be difficult to advance them. There

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BUSINESS OUTLOOK 2022