Activity Survey 2015
Figure 32: Capital Investment Outlook for the UK Continental Shelf
1
16
14
2
12
10
3
8
6
Uncertain
Sanctioned
4
4
2
Capital Investment (£ Billion - 2014 Money)
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
5
Source: Oil & Gas UK
Quarter 4 2014 data indicate that only £38 billion in total is currently committed for spend on the UKCS and some of this may be at risk as the oil price continues to fall. In the right environment, a further £26 billion of probable investment could see the development of an additional two billion boe. Sustaining and growing this investment is vital to the long-term future of the UKCS, but without cost and tax reductions, future investment, particularly brownfield, is at significant risk as companies compete for capital globally. A significant change in new investment intentions can already be seen as fresh projects have slipped in time and been reduced in scope. Figure 33 shows investment plans that are yet to receive sanction as of quarter 4 2014 versus the same time last year. A maximum of £3.5 billion of new expenditure will be sanctioned over the next three years, a noteworthy decline from the anticipated £8.5 billion over the same period last year. Looking further ahead, current poor exploration success could further damage longer term investment in the UKCS as few new development opportunities arise.
6
7
8
Figure 33: Comparison of Probable New Capital Investment Outlook
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
2015 2014
Probable Capital Investment (£ Billion - 2014 Money)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Oil & Gas UK
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